Probabilistic Attribution FAQ

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Dora Kishinevsky
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Probabilistic attribution is a mobile attribution method in which Singular collects device information passed through the tracking link when a user clicks on an ad. Probabilistic attribution is generally used when device-level IDs are not available. 

Note: On iOS, Apple does not allow advertisers to use probabilistic attribution methods (see below for examples and Apple's policies here).

 

What is probabilistic attribution?

Probabilistic attribution is a mobile attribution method in which Singular collects device information passed through the tracking link when a user clicks on an ad on Android.

When a user downloads and opens a mobile app on Android, the Singular SDK collects the same data from the device and sends it to the Singular servers, enabling Singular to search for a matching device in its database.

How does probabilistic attribution compare to using device IDs?
  • Probabilistic attribution is not as reliable as matching devices by their unique identifier. Singular uses probabilistic attribution as a fallback if no device identifiers are available (and neither is the Google Install Referrer, for Android devices).
  • Probabilistic attribution also uses a different attribution lookback window. The data used in this attribution method, such as the IP address, changes much more often than device identifiers (which users can reset but rarely do so). The accuracy of the device match decays exponentially after 24 hours. For this reason, Singular limits the lookback window to 24 hours.
When is probabilistic attribution typically used?

Since device identifiers are only available in mobile app environments, any advertising campaigns that run on a mobile web environment have to rely on probabilistic attribution when the Google Install Referrer isn't available.

For example:

  • Email campaigns
  • Tracking organic downloads from your mobile web landing page
  • Campaigns with ad networks working with mobile web inventory
  • CTV campaigns where the impression takes place on a Connected TV device

Ensure you choose to enable probabilistic attribution when setting up these campaign types.

What data does Singular collect for probabilistic attribution?

Singular relies on data points such as:

  • Platform
  • IP Address
  • OS Name
  • OS Version
  • User Agent
  • Timestamp

Note that this is publicly available information available in the HTTP headers. See updates regarding Chromium browsers.